this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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I think Max can wrap it up after Singapore.
There will be seven races to go, including 3 sprintraces.
7 races including fastest lap is: 7 * (25 + 1) = 182 points
3 sprintraces is 3 * 8 = 24 points.
That means he would have to lead by 206 points. He is now 145 points ahead, so no, Singapore is mathematically not possible.
OK. The the race after. If he wins Singapore, then Japan, he'll be at least 197 points ahead of Perez with 180 possible winning points for the rest of the year.
Not to sound too pessimistic, but that means he will have to extend his lead by 35 points (to get to 180). That means winning both races while Perez finishes 6th or lower. Perez isn't amazing but 2 races 6th or lower is also not realistic.
Also: 180 points is just the regular races and the fastest lap. There are also 3 sprintraces to go, that is another 24 points, so he would have to lead by 204 points after Japan.
Edit: you are correct on the 180 points. I added the sprint-races double somehow. The conclusion doesn't change though.
If max wins Singapore and Japan he is WDC. It doesn't matter where Perez finishes. There are not enough points left in the season for him to win the WDC.
I really don't think so. After Singapore and Japan, there are 6 more races to go (Qatar, Texas, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi). That is 6*(25+1)=156 points.
There are also 3 sprintraces left, that is another 3*8=24 points, so that means that Max needs a gap of at least 180 points to pull that off.
A win gives 7 points advantage to second place, if he is unlucky 6 (Perez gets fastest lap). He is currently 145 points ahead. If he extends his lead with 2*7=14 points in those races, he has a lead of 159 points with 180 points still up for grabs, so not WDC just yet.