this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2023
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GenZedong
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To me, Kremlin denials aside, it seems very obvious this is retaliation from Putin following the weird coup attempt earlier this summer. Personally I think I'd rather Wagner be one step closer to nationalization but I'm open to being wrong.
I'm also leaning towards his death being an assassination but I'm a bit ignorant about the whole situation so I don't hold any strong opinions.
I am pretty confident that neither Putin nor any official branch of the Russian government had anything to do with it, for multiple reasons that other commentators have already laid out at length in what has been written about this online. It wouldn't make sense for them to do it this way or at this specific time.
Could it be rogue elements in the Russian military or intelligence with some personal vendetta or acting in the misguided belief that this is what Putin would want or what is best for Russia? Maybe. Could even be internal Wagner resentment towards the leadership.
But if i had to bet i would still say the likeliest culprits are forces outside of Russia. Ukraine's SBU are the most obvious suspects since they have both a history of assassinations and a deep hatred of Wagner which they blame for their loss of Bakhmut.
However i also wouldn't be surprised if the West (French/British?) had a hand in this, though if they thought that by doing this they could create some instability in Russia, bad PR for Putin, or somehow hamper Wagner operations in Africa or elsewhere i think they miscalculated.
Not only did Wagner almost certainly have contingency plans for this sort of situation, but if anything this will just drive Wagner into an even quicker integration with the official Russian military, they will appoint new management and whatever previous contracts they had with various countries will continue smoothly.
I lean this way myself now
I honestly wouldnt be suprised if it was an internal shit fight in wagner or russian military sending a message and putin actually didnt have anything to do with it/it wasnt ordered by him.
I feel putins assasinations tend to lack colleteral damage, I dont see putin authorizing killing two commercial pilots when he could have just shot who he wanted or easily imprisoned them for treason ect.
Im also open to the possibility putin did it too; not outside the remit of possibility, its almost impossible to tell.
I especially don't see him doing it now, on the cusp of reinvigorated action in the Sahel region. Wagner humiliated France; and to me, it makes the most logical sense that the State Department would want to decapitate that dragon before the same could happen to them-- which all things considered, it still could if the next few links in the chain of command under Prigozhin are still intact, and move on the same accord that he would've.
It wasn't really a coup attempt as such, was it? Weren't they specifically going for certain people in the DoD and not Putin and the other guys at the top?
Either way, yeah, the whole thing was weird as fuck lol
If a merc oligarch can decide who gets to lead the armed forces against the president's wishes who is really in charge of the country? Even if Prigo did't depose Putin it would be clear who the real boss was.
Yeah, good point.