this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2023
595 points (95.1% liked)

Showerthoughts

29677 readers
1493 users here now

A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. A showerthought should offer a unique perspective on an ordinary part of life.

Rules

  1. All posts must be showerthoughts
  2. The entire showerthought must be in the title
  3. Avoid politics
    1. NEW RULE as of 5 Nov 2024, trying it out
    2. Political posts often end up being circle jerks (not offering unique perspective) or enflaming (too much work for mods).
    3. Try c/politicaldiscussion, volunteer as a mod here, or start your own community.
  4. Posts must be original/unique
  5. Adhere to Lemmy's Code of Conduct-----

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

Was just watching Jack Ryan Season 3 and seeing the display of force and their movements causes some interesting dissonance given what we know now.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] I_Has_A_Hat@lemmy.ml 14 points 1 year ago (4 children)

a country that barely has a navy

North Korea has the largest submarine fleet of any nation. Of course most of those are old diesel subs, but the point still stands.

[–] DigitalTraveler42@lemmy.world 34 points 1 year ago (1 children)

We've seen what the Russian military has been like in Ukraine, if you think most of those subs aren't rusting piles of garbage then you're probably drinking that tankie Kool aid. They've probably had to cannibalize the majority of them just to keep what few they have running, because it's not like they just idly make parts for 1950's era subs, especially not for a country that barely has enough money to feed themselves and spends most of that on their nuclear program.

Also they're loud ass diesel subs, every modern navy will know exactly where they are and how many they have easily, and it's not like 1950's weaponry is going to make up the difference.

[–] Hyperreality@kbin.social -1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

This being said, Russia also isn't as weak as we like to think. Given how the war has ground to a standstill, it's not unlikely it'll become yet another frozen conflict. And that's after arming the Ukrainians with large amounts of advanced weaponry.

We've become so used to the idea we'd have air supremacy in any potential war, we thought the Ukrainians would be able to push their way through the front, forgetting that the Ukrainians aren't able to take out artillery or mines beforehand.

The Russians have also adapted quite quickly. At the beginning of the war, the Ukrainians were having huge successes with drones. Now the Russians are downing 10,000 drones a month:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-losing-10000-drones-month-russia-electronic-warfare-rusi-report-2023-5?op=1&r=US&IR=T

To be clear, Russia is an existential threat to Europe. If they turn this conflict into a stalemate, they will have won territory that doesn't belong to them and it's almost certain they'll rebuild, rearm and do it again. Just like happened with Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine in 2014.

But underestimating the Russians is not in NATO members' interests. No one ever won a war underestimating the enemy, better to give Ukraine more than they need, than just barely enough to make incremental advances under the assumption Russia won't do a second wave of conscription and/or doesn't have (or isn't building up) reserves for a (counter) counter-offensive.

And given how Ukraine has struggled, even with advanced weaponry, it's clearly high time for Europe to re-arm so that Russia doesn't mistakenly think we're weak.

[–] DigitalTraveler42@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Russia is in a standstill, after losing major ground constantly for a year, against a country 1/3 Ruzzia's population, Ukraine also had next to no standing army prior to the invasion, meaning they had next to no professional soldiers prior to their being invaded by Ruzzia, and Ruzzia is invading them in conjunction with two of their allied powers, Belarus and Chechnya, all while the west slow rolls the supply and training of Ukraine, think about that for a sec.

Also this enemy that they're in a standstill with has been so effective that one of Ruzzia's key armies, Wagner, chose to rebel over continuing to get fed to the meat grinder. Ruzzia is literally down to recruiting 16 and 60 yr olds right now.

All of the propaganda by both Ruzzia and the West all made it seem like Ruzzia should have easily rolled over Ukraine prior to the realities of this war. However this war exposed Ruzzia as a broken down, corrupt paper tiger with a delusional dictator at the helm.

[–] Hyperreality@kbin.social 9 points 1 year ago

they had next to no professional soldiers prior to their being invaded by Ruzzia

Incorrect.

After Russia invaded in 2014, Ukraine heavily invested in its military. NATO has also been helping them train for years now. Wall Street Journal

This is also why Russia faced far stiffer resistance in 2022 than they did in 2014.

two of their allied powers, Belarus and Chechnya

Belarus's involvement is very limited. They're mainly allowing the Russians to fire missiles from their territory. Wikipedia

Chechnya isn't a country or 'power'. It's the Russian equivalent of Alabama.

Wagner, chose to rebel over continuing to get fed to the meat grinder

It would be a mistake to think people like Prigozhin want to end the war. Russian ultra-nationalists want to intensify and escalate the war, not stop it.

Ruzzia is literally down to recruiting 16 and 60 yr olds right now.

18-30. The Guardian

[–] Anticorp@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 year ago

An actual world super power would have rolled over Ukraine in a week. The fact that they've beat the Russians back for an entire year is not only totally bad-ass and heroic, but it also exposed the Russian Army for the weakling it is. The only reason Russia is still considered a world super power is because of their stockpile of Soviet era nukes. If Russia can't take Ukraine, they have zero chance against countries like China or the US, and especially not the combined forces of the United Nations?

[–] Munkisquisher@lemmy.nz 6 points 1 year ago

The really advanced US tanks and jets haven't entered the fight yet, and we've seen big gains in the last week with Russia losing 3 towns in the south, all the gains they made in the north over the last month taken back, and more groups crossing the Dnipro river. It's been a slow acceleration wearing through Russian reserves, but there's still a way to go before winter slows things down.

The real advanced weapons enter the fight next spring.

[–] SaakoPaahtaa@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Few old diesel shitters that will be suppressed immediately. Quality over quantity, especially after a military superpower like the US

[–] Hyperreality@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Old diesel subs? Sure.

But back in 2005 a now thirty year old Gotland-class diesel sub embarassed the USS Reagan in war games.

Since then, plenty of countries have designed newer and better diesel subs, and battery tech has obviously improved.

[–] Ryumast3r@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

There's a massive difference between an acoustically-optimized, AIP-capable Swedish submarine built thirty years ago, and what the North Koreans have which is basically none of those.

Also, while the Reagan itself was pretty new at the time, the Nimitz class was already a 30-year old design when that war game happened, and is now almost 60 years old as a class.

[–] Zoboomafoo@yiffit.net 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

According to the documentary Down Periscope, a nuclear sub is no match for a diesel sub with a misfit crew.

The US Navy wouldn't last a week

[–] dynamojoe@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

What a terrible demotion for Kelsey Grammer, from Starfleet to submarines.