this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2023
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Finance
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Economists admit they don't understand the causes of inflation, but they have some understanding why they can't understand it.
One of the main drivers of inflation is inflation expectations. If people (and investors, and companies, and countries, etc.) expect inflation and rates to go up, they will spend cash now instead of holding it. This itself of course drives inflation! And likewise if they expect inflation and rates to go down they'll hold cash and and bonds instead of investing in securities which might devalue during an economic slowdown. This makes inflation a very fickle phenomenon which cannot easily be anticipated and planned for like other economic trends.