this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2025
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You're overcorrecting in the opposite direction. The whole situation is funny because the US obviously wants to ban Tiktok for propagandist reasons, so the fact that so many Tiktokers are jumping on board to a site that translates to "Little Red Book" is funny.
This is like the CEO shooting all over again. People try to make a funny event more than what it really is which then prompts other people to overcorrect about how we shouldn't "lionize" the shooting because the alleged shooter said some reactionary things.
Most likely, XHS will be banned in the US, making your entire post moot. Just enjoy the wild ride for what it is because the ride is going to end very soon anyways.
Yeah I think this is what will most likely happen. That and/or the Chinese userbase will be walled off from the western one by the CPC for various reasons.
Why would the US want to ban xiaohongshu?
The whole point of banning TikTok is to force China to open up their social media spaces again as China has kicked Google, Facebook, Twitter etc. out since the last decade.
They don’t want Chinese social media app to be able to operate in the US when the US is not allowed to operate theirs in Chinese soil. American users joining Chinese social media app in China will only raise the incentives for China to open up to American social media. So, this is actually good for the US because now they have an excuse that American cultural content are not infringing on the rules set by the Chinese government.
So, there is no reason for the US to ban American users from joining Chinese social media operating within Chinese soil.
The reasons given under “national security” is as legit as the Chinese government gave for banning Western social media. You can call the US out for being hypocritical since they’re the ones coercing other countries to open up their market, but you can see banning TikTok as a political move to force China to open up their spaces to the US.
I don’t know what is the bottom line for China when it comes to cultural sovereignty after all these years of the Great Firewall, but the financial sector is already being opened up for foreign capital. So, the last realm of sovereignty left for China is their cultural spaces - will the Americans invade this space as well?
They'll block access to it for the same reason they're going to ban Tik Tok - because they don't control the narrative
“National security” is just an excuse. The real reason is that US tech companies want to enter China (again).
The US tech companies have been pushing this ban for years and they have been steadfastly ignored. What changed was the pro-Palestine narrative on Tik Tok after oct 7th. That is the prime motivator.
How? It seems like having Americans on their domestic apps means that if they want access to those users, they very much do not have to open up to American ones.
China wants foreign tech companies to invest to boost their domestic consumption and save their property market. So this could be an unexpectedly welcoming incident that may or may not have influenced the outcome anyway. In any case, both the US and China want to open up to each other and this could “ease” the tension since Google, Facebook, Twitter etc. were blacklisted or “made to leave”.
At least this is where all the signals are. The real question is how much is China willing to compromise after so many years of the Great Firewall. I expect China to at least try to guard them as best as they can when negotiating with Trump.
It still doesn't seem like this creates any new incentives for allowing the big US tech companies to operate their social media there. It sounds like you believe on background that China has incentives to open up to American social media and just wanted to talk about that.
You're giving a bunch of senile technologically illiterate boomers way too much credit. They're going to ban XHS because they'll Google translate XHS, see that it spits out "little red book," and have a kneejerk reaction in banning the site. They also recognize that a lot of their propaganda strategy hinges on people not knowing basic info on China.
There are smarter moves than just banning the site. The smartest move is to keep XHS and use it as a vector to spread US propaganda. Contact between two different parties is a dialectical relationship after all, and it's undialectical to think that only one party will be affected. I don't think it's that hard to cultivate Westophilia within XHS's userbase, but that strategy hinges on some cultural contact between the two countries, which I believe would be unacceptable to the boomers in charge. Another move they can play is to create trolls that ruin the site and push XHS to block US accounts, which allows the US to push out propaganda about how China fears US cultural exports.
The thing about this is that who is going to signup for XHS to be a lib? They have their home on Western social media.
Dialectics doesn't mean both parties are changed equally. Westerners are getting a completely new look into something they've never seen before. Chinese people are making some Western friends who voluntarily chose this site.
I remember when Google “left” China back in the early 2010s lol. These tech companies have been eyeing China for so long and have been waiting to make a come back. They already have the entire world’s market - China is the final frontier they have been itching to conquer.
Everyone is now just waiting for Trump to take office and see how he deals with China. As I have said elsewhere I expect a lot of tension being eased on both sides. I don’t know how much China is willing to compromise but I hope China can come out on top of the negotiations.