this post was submitted on 03 Jan 2025
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[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 4 points 4 days ago

The rebuttal based on retail electricity prices is not the strongest.

So we must maintain enough energy capacity in a parallel system, typically powered by natural gas.

The question is what new energy to build. Batteries are extremely competitive for new energy, more competitive without trade barriers meant to protect O&G, placed in EVs with V2G (or Vehicle to home/power) a private expenditure to enhance grid.

Legacy FF plants do not need to be nuked from orbit. Solar+batteries can outcompete existing FF plant variable costs. They are more competitive at low interest rates. But if demand is growing they outcompete new FF/nuclear plants. Legacy plants supplement batteries/renewables through backup/resillence services. Even 24/7 datacenter demand growth can be met through on site solar/battereies, because the bottleneck is daytime/duck curve transmission instead of generation capacity outside of self production. Renewables and EVs also reduce the price/cost of FFs. They are energy that displaces demand for other energy.

The low price of NG was a function of a less than expected success in US war on Europe. EU decreased NG/coal use by over 10% as a result of renewables expansion, even as electricity demand grew.

Where cheap energy and cheap steel is a key to US manufacturing, tariffs are extremely counter productive. Consumers of energy/metals are denied competitiveness, and their customers are denied value. Creating domestic monopolies/cartels is political corruption.