I think I can say that the ruble is in free fall
this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB
109.5 now(11:40 CET) with a clear upwards trajectory.
The trajectory points to it passing 110 soon maybe even 111 by the end of day, if the Russian central bank doesn't do something to intervene.
Looking at the 6 month graph, shows more clearly that it's really bad:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=6M
Going from 85 early August to about 110 now is a decline in value of 30% in 4 months. And from November 11 to today it's from 96 to 110, 14% in just over 2 weeks! It seems the Russian economy is imploding now.
PS:
Just to clarify: The graph going up means you get more Rubles for 1 US dollar. Meaning the value of the Russian Ruble is going down.
Edit:
12:30 CET Passed 110, pretty much as expected, which is why I already used that value in my calculations before it actually happened. 😋
13:00 WTF! from 110 to 111 in just ½ an hour, it's now declined 5% in a single day! And is still dropping!!
13:30 112.4 now! Another half hour another point!! I suspect the Central bank will respond to this soon. But it already seemed like they tried to support the Ruble yesterday, so maybe their reserves are running dry, so they can't?
14:10 114.5 Wow after seeming somewhat stable for almost half an hour, the crazy took it up an extra notch with 2 points in about 10 minutres, the decline for the day is now 8.5% !!
18:00 It seems to have stabilized around 113, The Russian central bank has made a public statement about halting purchase of foreign currency until 2025. I would imagine that would make foreign trade difficult? Early estimates are that the decline of the will cause inflation to increase from 8.5% to 10%.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/27/russian-central-bank-halts-currency-buying-until-2025-as-ruble-slides-a87147
Aaaand it's at 110 !
Even if it jumps back to 108 it would still be crazy bad. But who would invest like really invest not try to prop up the value artificially, in this train wreck? And it looks like the central bank have already played their cards ...
This is insane, 111 now, a drop of more than 5% in a single day!
I love how we can (almost) use percentage and points interchangeably today 😁
113 RN (27%/6 mo)
Edit: Links aren’t working at the moment. Did Google remove the chart [at Russia’s behest]?
You don't have to post the image of the graph I linked to myself.
The 30% I stated is from August to when the rate was 110 today.
Edit: Both links I posted work fine here.
There is a time/place/reason for captures. For example, I just pointed out the link wasn’t working. (But it is again)
Thanks though!
The Rubel is not freely traded. The Central Bank sets the exchange rates.
EDIT: exchange rate not interest rates. Shit.
That's how it is for all currencies.
Exchange rate. I am an idiot:
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr/?file=638538773185105939ENG_PP.htm
OK that makes more sense, but although Russia has done a lot to restrict trade with their currency, and they do a lot to stabilize it, it's still a traded currency.