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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024
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Here are the actual poll results which the article helpfully does not link to.
I think articles like this based on a single poll which appears to be an outlier are uninformative, but I guess they get clicks.
It's not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump's lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.
The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he'll win by about as much as he did in 2020.
Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.
Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he'll again outperform the polls.
I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they're planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.
Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.
Yeah, people are delusional if they think Florida, which overwhelmingly voted for DeSantis, has any chance of going to Harris.
He predicted a Hillary win in 2016. Go with the guy who gets it right, professor Allan Lichtman. He actually correctly predicted a Gore win in 2000 but the vote count was stopped by the Brooks Brothers riot and subsequently awarded to Bush by the right wing Extreme Court.
I’m not defending modern Nate Silver as a person — he seems to have become a bit of a gambling addict — but in 2016, 538’s model had Trump’s chances at like 33% and the competing models had his chances at 1-2%. It wasn’t a bad model so much as a “when polls are off, they tend to be off in the same direction” situation. The 2016 538 model at least took that into account.