this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2024
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I think it's pretty obvious that Naiper's seat is way hotter. I've already heard rumors of him not surviving the weekend. But I'd argue that Norvell's potential delta-h is higher. If FSU can't turn it around vs Cal or SMU (two decent programs mind you, I'd rank them above Memphis and GT) that could doom Norvell.
I hung by Billy as long as I could, but Florida simply does not look good and, importantly, doesn't look better, even just eye-test better. On the lose-big, lose-small, win-small, win-big arc, we're often still losing big. We also don't look "normal" bad. We look weird-bad with a huge staff, but no special teams coordinator, a lack of discipline, a bizarre NIL strategy (hopefully in the past), and stubbornness you usually see from coaches on the far side of much more success. He might make it to bloody Sunday if we come to a back-room understanding with someone associated with a playoff team, but I don't see any way he coaches the Gators past this year.
FSU sucks, but I think they pull four or five wins out of their butts this year, and Norvell gets one more year to find a better quarterback and see which year was the fluke. In all honesty, they probably don't want to be in the market with us in the same year anyway. If both of us suck, why not go with the one with a richer alumni base and no conference insecurity? You don't necessarily have to go through every top SEC team to make the playoffs anymore.
fwiw, I think that trying to remain loyal is helpful. Having just been through a 2 decade coaching rigamaroll, I think part of what caused our downturn to last so long was our quick turnover rate, especially early in that stretch. With that said, I think that attitude kept me on the Pruitt bandwagon far longer than needed, and resentful when we acquired Heupel. But it seems like we finally found our guy and that things have stabilized. But as I've said before, I'm gonna be gator-chompin on some popcorn with action like this in Gainesville.