this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2024
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If the west is stupid enough to pull the trigger on that, I think we're effectively guaranteed to see an economic crash here. It should also be obvious that China's going to have a far better path to recovery given that they're the ones actually producing things the world needs.
I think it's only a matter of time. It's not a question of if they pull the trigger it's just when. They have no reverse gear.
The only part that's still up in the air for me is if we'll see an open military confrontation and how far it will go. But my feeling is that once they start, even if it's just small provocations at first and using proxies with a degree of plausible deniability, they will have no choice but to keep escalating and escalating once they see that it's not working, just like they did in Ukraine.
I generally agree, past two years have shown that no rational thinking is involved in making these decisions, and there's an utter inability to learn from mistakes on display. They just keep doubling down without doing any retrospection or analysis of why they continue to fail. I do think there's a question of social cohesion in the west that's worth considering. The economic war with Russia has already created massive economic damage for western countries, and we're starting to see a lot of unrest brewing. The crash that will be caused by an economic war with China could act as a catalyst for the unrest to break out into outright political violence that could start toppling western regimes.
they may be eroding the foundations of their empire with this unthinking shit, but the line's still going up, isnt it? at least in the US.
so i dont think they are able to see the mistakes yet.
indeed, the system fundamentally precludes any sort of long term thinking
Actual life expectancy of lower-class American vs average life expectancy for example.
And this could be a good oportunity for China to pass some big reforms to the benefit of their people and to maintain trade with non western countries as western production likely falls even more.
Indeed!
All that I've observed in the past 5 years has ruled out any possibility of the west at large altering it's political/economic orthodoxy to remain competitive in a multipolar world. Even the radlibs blame externalities for capitalism's fatal flaws with their talk of Trump et al "infiltrating" the government the turn it fascist, but they have zero interest in actually sitting down, getting outside their comfort zone, and talking game on how to beat them for good AKA socialism. I s2g the number of times they've demanded that I serve them up a whole political program on a silver platter when I critique the system they supposedly hate...
It's worth noting that the whole idea that capitalist markets are more efficient than state planning was born out of the fact that the west had higher economic growth than the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. However, key context there is that the US effectively sat the war out and developed its industry while the rest of the world burned. That's where the economic advantage in the west actually came from. Now that the west doesn't have a head start, we're seeing how the market model is failing to keep up.
Don't forget the massive exploitation of the Global South for cheap resources and labour that allowed them to advance themselves at the cost of massively empoverishing the vast majority of the chain of production they relied on. Or in other words, they stole everyones futures for advancing only themselves.
Absolutely, but much of that was made possible by US coming out as a superpower from WW2. Without that, western colonialism would've crumbled a long time ago.
even the mfing WEF admitted that capitalism confuses growth with actual value. That tri-continental report on how the capitalist era is comprised of hegemonies, which piggyback off the financialization and decay of the former hegemon, has led to me to think that maybe future historians will view the US as the last hegemony of it's kind.
I do hope we collectively learn from the debacle of western capitalism going forward.