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To me, it's a tossup. Trump only looks good vs Biden, but Harris (assuming they pick her) isn't that great either. The botched assassination has energized the hogs while no one wants Harris and she is too close to the Biden administration by virtue of being vice president. There's going to be low voter turnout, which always favor the GOP candidate.
I think if the Democrats pick someone else like, that candidate has a good chance of beating Trump because that candidate wouldn't have baggage.
I dont think theres any candidate the Dems where their strength combiend with this would overcome how bad it would look to the base to pick anyone but Kamala unfortunately. It would be nice if they could just pick the strongest candidate to beat him, but thats not what the Dem voters are used to.
That's what the scaremongering over Project 2025 is for. Once they scaremonger Project 2025 at a sufficient level, they can sell that the Democrats needs to stop Project 2025 by any means necessary including handpicking a candidate who can beat Trump. As long as they can justify their choice with polling data, the base will play along.
It's a moot point since Biden has endorsed Harris, and that's who the candidate will most likely be.