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Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll. (twitter.com)

submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one to c/uk_politics

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🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 24% (-4)

Lab 48% (+2)

Lib Dem 11% (+2)

Other 17% (-1)

Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)

Flavible:

Party	Pred %	Pred Seats
CON 🌳	24.0%	119
LAB 🌹	48.0%	425
LD 🔶	11.0%	47
REFUK ➡️	6.0%	0
Green 🌍	5.0%	1
SNP 🎗️	3%	32
PC 💮	1%	4

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON 🌳	44.7%	376	24.0%	0	309	-309	67
LAB 🌹	33.0%	197	48.0%	320	0	+320	517
LIB 🔶	11.8%	8	11%	13	0	+13	21
Reform ➡️	2.1%	0	6%	0	0	+0	0
Green 🌍	2.8%	1	5%	0	0	+0	1
SNP 🎗️	4.0%	48	3.3%	4	29	-25	23
PlaidC 💮	0.5%	2	0.5%	1	1	+0	2
Other ⬜️	1.1%	0	2.2%	1	0	+1	1
N.Ire ⬜️	-	18	-	0	0	+0	18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con	Lab	Lib	REF	Green	SNP
12%	34%	9%	2%	9%	34%

PrincipleFish

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[–] Emperor 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

And those poor Lib Dems, I do think they are being underestimated by the models, but it doesn’t look amazing for them eh.

They always get hammered by FPTP but I follow politics and they really aren't on the radar - the Tories have made such a mess and Starmer is trying to play the grown-up in the room and there's just no oxygen for left for them.

[–] that_ginger_one 2 points 1 year ago

It does depend on how much people just 'go labour' because thats the 'not tory' vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can't actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won't really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.

I haven't played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting 'not tory'. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.

It's all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that's also a guess and there's no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that's always fun to see.