this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2024
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Image is of Bolivian President Luis Arce (center, with glasses) face-to-face with General Zuñiga (in camouflage) during the coup attempt.


On the 26th of June, while Hexbear was in an 8-hour hibernation, General Juan José Zuñiga marched 200 troops and some armored vehicles on the government palace in an attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government of Luis Arce. This is somewhat reminiscent of Jeanine Anez's coup in November 2019 where she overthrew the socialist president Evo Morales, but while that coup was due to a colour revolution likely orchestrated by the United States and had at least a tiny amount of political/public legitimacy and "followed the rules" in a certain sense (as Morales was trying to abolish presidential term limits, which is only evil if a socialist is doing it), this was a much more naked attempted seizure of power by a military general.

This coup was quickly terminated without even a momentary transfer of power. Democracy was saved.

Despite being in the same party, Morales and Arce have increasingly been in opposition. Morales champions anti-imperialism, rights for indigneous people, and poverty reduction. This last one especially has been threatened by Arce, though it's not entirely his fault, as the Bolivian economy is threatened by the same crisis affecting so many developing economies around the world right now - say it with me now - a lack of dollars and mounting debt. The US Federal Reserve is carrying out a bloody offensive against the world's poor, and this has combined nastily with a rather uninspiring "post"-coronavirus economic recovery in Bolivia, as well as diminishing natural gas production (and thus less exports with which to earn dollars).

While the coup was ongoing, Morales banded behind the government. Afterwards, however, Morales expressed his skepticism about whether the coup was, in fact, genuine, calling for an independent investigation into it, and saying that Arce “disrespected the truth, deceived us, lied, not only to the Bolivian people but to the whole world." This is because General Zuñiga made a series of very interesting statements to his family and colleagues, saying that Arce had "betrayed" him, and saying that Arce had told him “‘The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" This does check out on the surface level, at least: Arce has suffered increasing unpopularity as the economy has suffered.

Interestingly, Morales' narrative has been supported by the anarchocapitalist leader of Argentina, Javier Milei, who is currently busy completely destroying his own country and stripping the copper out of the walls to give to American capitalists. Milei said that the coup attempt was "fraudulent". Meanwhile, those inside MAS opposed to Morales' accusations of a false coup have accused him of allying with the fascist right and becoming an instrument of imperialism.


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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
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Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
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https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 41 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (7 children)

https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/1809363442396168332

[🇮🇷 OFFICIAL COUNT] so far:

Total votes counted: 2,547,381 votes

Massoud Pezeshkian : 1,263,874 votes Saeed Jalili: 1,244,640 votes

Edit: It's Joever.

https://xcancel.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1809430187710222436

Iran's Ministry of the Interior announced that reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won the 2024 presidential election with a total of 16,384,403 votes, while conservative candidate Saeed Jalili received 13,538,179 votes.

[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 32 points 4 months ago

What are their views on riding in helicopters?

[–] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 29 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)
[–] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 27 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)
[–] Sebrof@hexbear.net 24 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Any updates? Not looking good. I suppose they're still counting?

[–] GlueBear@hexbear.net 26 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Almost half the votes are counted (~13M) and pezeshkian is in the lead by almost 600k

[–] Sebrof@hexbear.net 28 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Thank you. How much power would the Reformists have in derailing Iran's role in anti-imperialism and building multipolarity?

[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 24 points 4 months ago (1 children)

How much power do they have over Khameni? My understanding was that he holds most of the executive power.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 16 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

No, Khamenei is more like the pope in the hre. They mostly ignore him, also he is a liberal too. He was elected because he was liberal but had deep connections to the shrines, and in that time the contradictions between both were not as obvious. Or rather there are 2 types of liberals the freedom and the modernity ones, Khamenei is the former. Last election they banned a failson of one of his family friends from running, and he threw a tantrum bun no one cared.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 17 points 4 months ago

Short term a lot. Because they cause instability. And the other guy had great economic policies. Long term not much because liberalism is self defeating. Their policies tend to result in the opposite of what they want, last time their reforms caused a deficit, being liberals they sold state companies and functions. Those were bought mainly by charitable and voluntary institutions, Wich are generally principalists.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 20 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Not looking good. It's almost half a million votes now.

[–] GlueBear@hexbear.net 26 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Why do people elect neoliberals? Like what do they actually expect will happen???

[–] Lester_Peterson@hexbear.net 36 points 4 months ago (2 children)

One of the greatest strengths of neoliberal reformists in Iran is that they are the side less associated with decades of violently enforced moralism, especially the mandatory hijab. For millions of Iranians striking back against the Guidance Patrol at home is a more prescient issue than their country’s policy abroad.

Ideally there’d be a Socialist voice supporting multipolarism, the working class, and freedom from moralistic dictates, but the very forces aligned with Jalili have plenty of responsibility for such a voice not existing.

[–] GlueBear@hexbear.net 23 points 4 months ago

Why you don't eliminate the fucking communists in your country: you get neoliberals later if you do

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 10 points 4 months ago

This is exaggerated. Very few people actually obey those prohibitions. The main issue is the economy. And easing sanctions is a real concern.

[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 26 points 4 months ago

The Islamic Republic isn't popular. Like yeah the Hardliners are right in the US is bad, but if they aren't popular at home, they are gonna be taken out.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 14 points 4 months ago

Because Iran is in a siege. People recognize that they need foreign trade to improve their material conditions. And there is a substantial set of elites that want to have the same stuff as western elites. This is also why the Soviet union fell.

The difference is that Soviet elites were old and had lived through a long period of peace and prosperity. But in Iran there is another set of elites that is constantly being martyred. And I don't think they would give up so easily. There is also a lot of strong economic interests that hate the idea of a modern state. Finally liberalism is at war with itself; they want a strong government that supports capitalist interests, but their dogma forces them towards silly policies like fiscal responsibility that inevitably weaken said government. For example during the Rouhani government they cut funding to the space program, but volunteer organizations picked up the slack and the Iranian space program is doing great, it's just now independent of the executive. Likewise previous rounds of privatization have benefited charitable organizations and local militias. So I'm not too worried about this loss.

Some things are not going to be good, transition of some programs from the executive to civil society will cause delays, some things like the nuclear program are going to go to a standstill. And the economy will experience instability.

[–] Cunigulus@hexbear.net 9 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Pezeshkian is really handsome

[–] GlueBear@hexbear.net 8 points 4 months ago
[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 5 points 4 months ago

Both of them are

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 17 points 4 months ago

shrug-outta-hecks would be interesting to see what they manage to accomplish

[–] Frank@hexbear.net 4 points 4 months ago

What's the IRGC's role in all this? Do they have any role in domestic politics? I'm pretty sketchy on where domestic policy comes from.