this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2024
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Probabilities and basic stats. People do not think in "what are the chances" but in black and white. I think one reason is we don't teach probabilities in American schools. It drastically impacts a citizens ability to understand the news, and especially science.
What if the purpose of school isn't inherently to teach people stuff?
Then my point still stands?
Layman statistics is not the hill I would die on. Otherwise (being guilty of the fallacy myself) I now think that making a subject mandatory school lesson will only make people more confidently incorrect about it, so this is another hill I won't die on for probability and statistics. See for instance the widespread erroneous layman use of "statistical significance" (like "your sample of partners is not statistical significant") you see it is a lost cause. They misinterpret it because they were taught it. Also professionals have been taught it and mess it up more than regularly to the point we can't trust studies or sth any more. So the solution you suggest is teach more of it? Sounds a bit like the war on drugs.
What's your solution?
Reminds me of the TED talk, "Why we make bad decisions."