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The original was posted on /r/singularity by /u/Heath_co on 2024-01-22 19:46:14+00:00.
We are currently experiencing the start of a temporary exponential growth curve thanks to new AI technology. The International Monetary fund has estimated that AI will put 60% of jobs at risk. So, I’m guessing they are assuming that AI technology will plateau when around 60% of jobs have been made redundant or reimagined. Many others have similar estimates, but these estimates forget one key factor;
The plateau of the current AI technology won’t be the end of technological advancement.
To better explain my point, I will go back to the beginning. From the start of time, it took
10,000,000,000+ years for matter and energy to become single celled life.
Then 4,000,000,000 years for multi celled life and the development of the brain.
~600,000,000 years for humans and the accumulation of knowledge between generations.
~2,000,000 years for farming and civilization. Allowing for people who are devoted to the accumulation of knowledge and writing.
~10,000 years for industry, and the rapid acceleration of technological advancement.
~200 years for electronic computers, allowing for the rapid processing of information.
~60 years for the Internet. Allowing for the rapid transfer of information across the planet.
It took roughly 20 years after the internet went public for the arrival of smartphones and social media, which allowed for the accumulation of digital information.
Then 10 years more for transformer based neural networks, generative AI, and the outsourcing of intelligence.
Each plateau after a paradigm shift is progressively getting shorter and shorter by orders of magnitude. The singularity is when the exponential growth curve has no apparent plateaus and is continuous. The technological revolutions will overlap with no pauses in-between.
And here we are concerned about what jobs will survive AI. Let’s say those 60% of jobs do eventually get replaced and there is a new technological plateau. How long will that status quo last before the next technological revolution? A year?
The exponential curve has occurred thus far without the assistance of AI. Imagine what the curve will be like when science can progress at digital speeds.
(Edit: improvements to the timescales and added descriptions to explain my reasoning)