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Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis on Tuesday called on NATO to draw strict red lines for Russia over hybrid attacks and to send a unified message about the alliance’s response to such actions.

[...]

Lithuania’s top diplomat noted that an investigation is underway into Monday’s crash of a DHL cargo plane in Vilnius and that “no option has been excluded so far”, adding that the incident “is definitely worrying”.

Landsbergis said that, in this context, allies must send a message both to Russian President Vladimir Putin and their own citizens that attempts by the aggressor to intimidate must stop, or else concrete action will be taken.

[...]

A Spanish national was killed, three other crew members, a Spaniard, a German and a Lithuanian, were injured when the DHL cargo plane crashed near Vilnius Airport on Monday morning.

The Boeing 737-476(SF), which was coming from the German city of Leipzig, was owned by Spain’s Swiftair and used for transporting DHL parcels.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday that the crash could have been an accident or a “hybrid incident” involving outside actors.

...

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/5104693

Archived link

Russia's hybrid attacks began after the annexation of Crimea and are becoming increasingly brazen, security experts say. The West has started to acknowledge the danger but still does not treat individual incidents as parts of the same anti-Western hybrid war.

In Västerås, Sweden, about a hundred kilometers from Stockholm, stands a Russian Orthodox Church. The Swedish Security Service has reported that the church has ties to Russian intelligence in Sweden and that Russia uses the Russian Orthodox Church as a cover for intelligence activities. Nearby are an airfield, a water treatment plant and energy companies.

"Sensors can be installed there – cameras or some sort of listening devices – to monitor communications. Additionally, it could be used for accommodation, including housing special forces. It was later discovered that the planning process did not follow legal procedures, but the church is there today," said security expert Martin Hurt.

Hurt also pointed out that not all Scandinavian countries have developed the same sense of threat awareness as those bordering Russia.

"Unfortunately, in some Scandinavian countries that have enjoyed long periods of peace, some people continue to live in that mindset," he noted.

[...]

"There have been attacks on railway systems. Trains have been halted in Germany and Sweden. In France, for example, on the opening day of the Olympic Games, there was a strange attack in three locations simultaneously on railway lines leading to Paris," [security expert Eerik-Niiles] Kross noted.

[...]

"There has been a reluctance to acknowledge that this is a systematic, centrally directed sabotage campaign targeting not just one country or another, but the Western world as a whole," he said.

Kross highlighted the so-called "triple A model," introduced in NATO and the European Union in recent years, derived from the English terms: acknowledge the event, assess it and attribute it to the perpetrator. According to Kross, a fourth "A" – act – is missing.

"Every time something like this happens, €100 million in frozen Russian assets should be taken and handed over to Ukraine," he suggested as an example.

[Edit typo.]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/5103670

Archived link

China: Coverage in China this month of the rape of a 13-year-old girl, a case involving local officials, has drawn the focus to shortcomings in sexual assault protections as well as government corruption

The disturbing case of a 13-year-old in China who was raped and forced into prostitution — which first came to light in May this year — was back in the news this month, grabbing headlines also in Taiwan and Hong Kong. According to recent news on the case, the girl, identified in reports by the pseudonym “Li Xiaoxia” (李晓霞), was abused by 14 individuals, including three public officials. One of the latter is the deputy chairman of the local people’s congress in Hunan’s Xinhua County (新化縣), where the abuse occurred between April and July 2023.

[...]

Reports from official media in China, including Shanghai’s The Paper (澎湃), openly named the public officials implicated in the abuse, while others involved were identified only by their surnames — suggesting an interest in highlighting official malfeasance. Among the officials was Gong Haodong (龚昊东), who only a half year ago was selected as vice-chairman of the People’s Congress in Youxi Township (油溪乡). Back in May, the primary offender in the case — a 17-year-old who had previously forced Li into prostitution — was handed a sentence of more than nine years in prison. The penalties for the other adult defendants ranged from three to four and a half years.

[...]

As Chinese media seem keen to highlight odious official conduct at the lowest levels, it bears remembering on the issue of sexual harassment that international Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai (彭帅) was forcibly disappeared in November 2021 after she accused former vice-premier Zhang Gaoli (张高丽) of pressuring her into sex. The phenomenon of going after small-time officials while leaving high-level officials untouched is referred to in Chinese as “swatting at flies and letting the tigers run free.”

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/5103351

The European Union is proposing to sanction several Chinese firms it claims helped Russian companies develop attack drones that were deployed against Ukraine.

The European Commission is also looking to impose restrictions on additional Russian oil tankers to curb Russia’s ability to circumvent existing restrictions, the report said, as per Bloomberg.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/5082530

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On the two-year anniversary of Chinese authorities’ crackdown on the peaceful “Blank Paper” demonstrations, Chinese Human Rights Defenders calls on Beijing to release all wrongfully detained protesters.

"We urge the international human rights community to press the Chinese government to fulfill its human rights obligations to protect freedom of peaceful assembly, expression, and the right to fair trials," the organization writes on its websites.

In late November 2022, people across China, outraged by a deadly fire in Urumqi and frustrated by strict COVID-19 lockdown measures, took to the streets in cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Wuhan. Demonstrators held up blank sheets of paper, symbolizing censorship and their inability to express dissent openly. They chanted various slogans, including “End zero-COVID.” Some even called for “Down with Xi Jinping” and “Down with the Communist Party!”

The protests represented a rare instance of spontaneous demonstrations across multiple Chinese cities since the Tiananmen pro-democracy protests in 1989, with citizens openly expressing dissent in public space. Authorities responded with widespread detentions of students, journalists and other citizens across the country.

Two years ago, Chinese Human Rights Defenders (CHRD) tracked the names of more than 30 people who were taken into custody and estimated that at least 100 people had been detained. No official figures of arrests have been released. Some people were released shortly after their arrests. However, others faced harsher punishments, including imprisonment and enforced disappearances

[...]

The ongoing prosecution of participants and supporters of the Blank Paper protests underscores the urgent need to hold the Chinese government accountable and to put an end to its impunity for repeated and ongoing violations of its obligations to protect human rights.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/5070152

TLDR: In recent years, as China has suffered from an economic downturn, the rate of random mass attacks has soared. After three random mass killings unfolded in Chinese coastal cities in the last two weeks, some people on social media echoed the official line of harsh punishment, while others called for freedom of expression so that people could express their grievances and the authorities could address their pain in time.

Some also suggested economic reform to boost the employment rate and policy reform, such as social welfare and labour laws, to improve working conditions. In short, people need to see hope for their future.

[...]

However, as anticipated, the Chinese authorities are fixated on their standard social control handbook. While social profiling is common in China through it's social credit system, on Weibo, many said that the Chinese Communist Party’s grassroots branches have started profiling residents into additional categories, namely, “4-without” (四無) and “5-failure” (五失).

The “4-without” are those without a spouse and children, job and regular income, normal social connections, and assets like property and cars. The “5-failure” are those who “fail” in their investments, lives, relationships, and suffer from mental illness.

**The party branches were told to pay special attention to people labelled “4-without” and “5-failure” as they are assumed to have nothing to lose, and thus might be more likely to harm society. **

However, such a measure won’t relieve the social strain. One social media user pointed out that the two social groups are victims of an unjust system and need assistance, rather than further social labels and control.

Having them screened out, and then what, put in jail? [People labelled] 4-without and 5-failure have not broken the law, and almost all of them are in need of economic assistance. The CCP does not have a comprehensive social welfare system, so how can it let these people who are in trouble get through their difficulties? The CCP keeps giving local governments money to solve their debt crisis, and it keeps pumping money into the stability maintenance system, but it is not willing to spend any money to solve the real problem! Shouldn’t the CCP know which is more effective: damming or dredging the river?

Archived version

In the first half of 2024, Russia's federal statistics agency, Rosstat, reported 13.3 million people living in poverty across the country. Although this is an increase from 2023, it drastically underestimates the actual scale of poverty.

For years, the Russian government has manipulated statistics, with Rosstat revising its methods to meet presidential mandates aimed at lowering poverty rates.

However, evaluating current data by using the previous methodology reveals a much grimmer picture: by the end of 2023, the number of poor people in Russia was 1.5 times higher than officially acknowledged — ranging from 14.6 to 18 million (up to 12.5% of the population), according to The Insider. Many of those classified as “not poor” struggle to afford basic necessities like clothing and food. Poverty levels surged after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and despite enormous government spending, the situation has yet to return to pre-war levels.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4989993

A British man admitted on Friday that he carried out an arson attack on a London commercial property linked to Ukraine, and that he had accepted pay from a foreign intelligence agency, in a case prosecutors have linked to Russia.

Jake Reeves, 22, pleaded guilty at London's Woolwich Crown Court to charges of aggravated arson on the premises belonging to a "Mr X" on an industrial estate in east London in March.

He also admitted a charge under Britain's new National Security Act (NSA) of obtaining a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service.

He denied a further charge under the NSA of engaging in preparations for an act endangering the life of a person or creating serious risk to the health or safety of the public, and prosecutors said they would not pursue that charge.

Last month another man, Dylan Earl, 20, also admitted carrying out the arson attack. He pleaded guilty to a preparatory act under the NSA, which was brought in last year to crack down on hostile activity by foreign states.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4978690

Archived link

A 27 percent year-on-year increase in dissent events. CDM logged 937 dissent events in the third quarter of 2024, a 27 percent increase over the same period in 2023. The majority of these protests are led by workers (41 percent), property owners (28 percent), and rural residents (12 percent), with the remainder driven by diverse groups such as parents, students, investors, consumers, members of religious or ethnic minority groups, and activists.

The top regions for protest events were Guangdong (18 percent), followed by Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Zhejiang. CDM has logged a total of 7,377 cases of dissent since data collection began in June 2022.

• Citizens fighting for autonomy in their communities. This issue analyzes 174 cases of homeowners pushing back against perceived abuses and overreach by property management companies. When homeowners have attempted to democratically form owners’ committees to take back powers that were seized by the management companies, they have been met with obstruction or other repression by the company or local government. These tensions have been exacerbated by the government increasingly treating property managers as the first line of social management.
• Dissenting through xinfang. Citizens often use xinfang, or petitioning, a complaint channel encouraged by the government, to carry out collective action or other contentious forms of dissent. This report explores the trends underlying 182 such cases, at least half of which led to some form of repression.
• Rise in frequency of consumer and investor protests. CDM has documented a rise in protests over recent months by consumers and investors amidst a sluggish economy. Despite the grievances originating with the conduct of private companies, nearly 40 percent of these protests demand government intervention.

[Edit typo.]

Judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and former defence minister, as well as Hamas's military commander.

A statement said a pre-trial chamber had rejected Israel’s challenges to the court’s jurisdiction and issued warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

A warrant was also issued for Mohammed Deif, although the Israeli military has said he was killed in an air strike in Gaza in July.

The judges said there were “reasonable grounds” the three men bore "criminal responsibility" for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the war between Israel and Hamas. Both Israel and Hamas have rejected the allegations.

It will now be up to the ICC's 124 member states - who do not include Israel or its ally, the United States - to decide whether or not to enforce the warrants.

In May, the ICC prosecutor Karim Khan sought warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, Deif and two other Hamas leaders who have since been killed, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. Although Israel believes Deif has also been killed, the chamber said it was not able to confirm his death.

The former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and some of his closest allies are among dozens of people formally accused by federal police of being part of a criminal conspiracy designed to obliterate Brazil’s democratic system through a rightwing coup d’état.

Federal police confirmed on Thursday that investigators had concluded their long-running investigation into what they called a coordinated attempt to “violently dismantle the constitutional state”.

In a statement, police said the report – which has been forwarded to the supreme court – formally accused a total of 37 people of crimes including involvement in an attempted coup, the formation of a criminal organization, and trying to tear down one of the world’s largest democracies.

The accused include Bolsonaro, a disgraced army captain turned populist politician, who was president from 2018 until the end of 2022, as well as some of the most important members of his far-right administration.

They included Bolsonaro’s former spy chief, the far-right congressman Alexandre Ramagem; the former defense ministers Gen Walter Braga Netto and Gen Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira; the former minister of justice and public security Anderson Torres; the former minister of institutional security Gen Augusto Heleno; the former navy commander Adm Almir Garnier Santos; the president of Bolsonaro’s political party, Valdemar Costa Neto; and Filipe Martins, one of Bolsonaro’s top foreign policy advisers.

Also named is the rightwing blogger grandson of Gen João Baptista Figueiredo, one of the military rulers who governed Brazil during its 1964-85 dictatorship.

The list contains one non-Brazilian name: that of Fernando Cerimedo, an Argentinian digital marketing guru who was in charge of communications for Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, during that country’s 2023 presidential campaign. Buenos Aires-based Cerimedo is close to Bolsonaro and his politician sons.

The long-awaited conclusion of the police investigation comes just days after federal police officers made five arrests as part of a roundup of alleged members of a plot to assassinate Bolsonaro’s leftwing successor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his centre-right vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, as well as the supreme court judge Alexandre de Moraes.

Shortly before police announced the end of their inquiry, Lula voiced gratitude that the attempt to poison him had failed. “I’m alive,” the 79-year-old leftist said during a speech.

Gen Mario Fernandes, one of the five people arrested over the alleged “Green and Yellow Dagger” assassination plan, was also among the 37 people named by federal police on Thursday – and like the others was formally accused of being part of a criminal coup attempt. “We are at war,” Fernandes allegedly said in one message discovered by police investigators.

Bolsonaro has previously denied involvement in an attempt to overturn the result of the 2022 election, which he lost to Lula. Speaking to a journalist from the Brazilian news site Metrópoles after he was named in the police report, the former president said he needed to see what was in the investigation. “I’m going to wait for the lawyer,” Bolsonaro added.

Braga Netto, Heleno and other prominent names on the list made no immediate comment about the accusations in the federal police report, which the police statement said was based on a large trove of evidence gathered through plea deals, searches and the analysis of financial, internet and phone records. But prominent pro-Bolsonaro politicians criticized the report, with Rogério Marinho, the leader of the opposition in the senate, attributing it to the “incessant persecution” targeting Brazil’s right. “The more they persecute Bolsonaro, the stronger he gets,” tweeted Sóstenes Cavalcante, a Bolsonarista congressman from Rio.

The alleged pro-Bolsonaro coup attempt allegedly played out during the turbulent final days of his four-year administration, which came to an end when he was narrowly defeated by Lula in the second round of the 2022 presidential election.

In the lead-up to that crunch vote, a manifesto signed by almost a million citizens warned that Brazilian democracy was facing a moment of “immense danger to democratic normality” amid widespread suspicion that plans were afoot to help Bolsonaro cling to power even if he lost.

After losing his re-election bid, Bolsonaro flew into temporary exile in the US while thousands of supporters gathered outside military bases around Brazil to demand a military intervention that never came.

The failed attempt to overturn Lula’s victory culminated in the 8 January 2023 riots in the capital, Brasília, when radicalized Bolsonaristas rampaged through the presidential palace, congress and supreme court.

Nearly two years later, Lula is in power but the far-right threat to his administration remains. Last Wednesday night, a member of Bolsonaro’s political party was killed after apparently blowing himself up with homemade explosives while attacking the supreme court.

During a search of the man’s trailer, police reportedly found a cap emblazoned with the slogan of Bolsonaro’s far-right movement: “Brazil above everything. God above all.”

​In a video statement, Paulo Pimenta, Lula’s communications minister, said the government was “utterly perplexed and outraged” by the revelations that the former president and members of the military had allegedly been plotting to bring down Brazil’s democracy “with almost unbelievable audacity”.

“These are very grave crimes [and] very serious accusations,” added Pimenta, who said Lula’s administration would now wait for the public prosecutor’s office to decide which of the 37 would be prosecuted and put on trial. Those convicted would have to pay for the crimes they had committed against democracy, against the constitution and against the Brazilian people, said Pimenta. “Bolsonaro in Jail”, the minister wrote alongside his video, echoing a call from many progressive Brazilians.

Archived version

Two high-profile mass killings and a car crash at a primary school in just over a week are raising questions about how well-equipped China is to deal with the stresses of a slowing economy and related mental-health issues.

Since November 11, the country has reeled from news of a driver reportedly angry at his divorce settlement killing 35 people by ramming his car into a crowd in Zhuhai; a former student on a stabbing rampage at a vocational college in Wuxi, killing eight; and a car ploughing into a crowd of school children and pedestrians in the city of Changde on Tuesday.

[...]

The events have led to a spike in worries about the overall health of society in China, where mass casualty attacks have occurred with alarming regularity throughout 2024. There have been nine so far this year, compared with six in total in the preceding decade.

[...]

As the economy slows, employment opportunities are more precarious and fewer people are being lifted by China’s long-running economic miracle. The repercussions on mental health from such economic pressures are growing, experts say.

[...]

Xiaojie Qin, a Beijing-based psychotherapist and director at mental health non-profit CandleX, says that a pervasive sense of societal unfairness and disparity can lead in extreme cases to violence against random bystanders.

“Some people who were left behind and socially and economically more marginalised can feel they are not being treated fairly, and some people who don’t have enough emotional regulation, they have outbursts, sometimes violent outbursts,” she said.

[...]

The widespread censorship of discussion around the attacks has also appeared to heighten concerns as more people question the veracity of information they are receiving from official sources, analysts said.

“It can exacerbate societal fears and distrust of the government within China, particularly if seemingly random, large-scale violent incidents persist as they have this year,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

[...]

"The lack of access to mental health services is one reason disaffected people resort to violence, but the lack of an independent legal system that protects individuals’ rights over the interests of the party or government results in a lack of trust and faith in the courts,” said Drew Thompson [a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore].

[...]

A banana duct-taped to a white wall — or an acclaimed piece of art, depending how you look at it — sold at a Sotheby's auction for $6.24 million Wednesday.

Maurizio Cattelan's "Comedian" is simply a banana stuck to the wall with a strip of silver duct tape exactly 160 centimeters from the floor.

The artwork debuted at Art Basel Miami Beach in December 2019 and was initially estimated to sell for $1.5 million, according to Sotheby's.

Art Basel quickly had to take the banana off the wall because of the crowds it drew, as it was prompting concern for the other featured artworks, art critic Nancy Durrant said in a Sotheby's video about the piece of art.

It was the first art fair Cattelan was included in for 15 years, and it was the "announcement as a new original work by Maurizio Cattelan that captured the world's attention immediately," said David Galperin, Sotheby’s head of contemporary art for the Americas.

At one point, someone even took the banana off the wall and ate it.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4948287

A Hong Kong court harshly sentenced 45 prominent pro-democracy figures on November 19, 2024, on baseless national security charges that underscored Hong Kong’s abysmal human rights situation, Human Rights Watch said today. The Hong Kong government should quash the convictions and immediately release all of those convicted.

Three judges handpicked by Hong Kong’s chief executive sentenced 37 men and 8 women to prison terms ranging from 4 years and 2 months to 10 years. The defendants were earlier convicted of “conspiracy to commit subversion” under article 22 of the National Security Law for helping to organize or run as candidates in an informal primary election in 2020 aimed at winning seats in the then-semi-democratic Legislative Council.

“It’s now a crime carrying up to 10 years in prison to try and run in and win an election in Hong Kong,” said Maya Wang, associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “The cruel sentences for dozens of prominent democracy activists show just how fast Hong Kong’s civil liberties and the rule of law have nosedived in the four years since the Chinese government imposed the draconian National Security Law on the city.”

[Edit typo.]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4918199

Archived link

Swedish authorities say they have detected a Chinese ship moving near two telecoms cables that failed within hours of each other on the Baltic Sea bed in recent days.

Prosecutors in Stockholm have launched a preliminary investigation into suspected sabotage, hours after Germany dubbed the cable failure part of a “hybrid operation”.

On Sunday morning at about 10am, Swedish authorities registered problems with a data cable under the Baltic Sea from the Öland island to Lithuania. At 4am on Monday, telecoms operators in Finland and Germany reported problems with another cable called C-Lion-1.

Both cables were damaged in the Swedish economic zone, prompting prosecutors in Stockholm to take the investigation lead.

It's been a long time coming, but at least with it's final act it'll help bring new life.

In accordance with the rules of news, I have updated the headline to reflect the headline on the website.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4917821

The Czech secret service has blamed Russia for a series of bomb threats against schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, placing more pressure on already strained ties between Prague and Moscow.

Hundreds of Czech and Slovak schools were forced to close for several days in early September due to unprecedented bomb threats via email, according to local media. Nothing came of the threats and no evidence of explosives was found near the schools.

The head of the Czech Republic's secret service, Michal Koudelka, warned the country's parliament on Monday about cyber attacks against Czech entities.

"For example, the threatening emails in September about the placement of explosives targeting a number of schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, behind which there is also a clearly visible Russian trace," Koudelka said.

"We are witnessing a kind of globalisation of evil, where the countries of the axis of evil — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — support, complement and help each other achieve their goals. We are therefore witnessing a phenomenon that is very serious and dangerous," he added. Related

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885911

**The Russian economy is showing more and more signs that growth is slowing, and economists are beginning to talk more and more about stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation. As no-one can openly blame the Ukraine war, the Central Bank highlights “external factors,” while business leaders and government-connected economists blame the Central Bank for imposing record high interest rates. **

[...]

An economic slowdown is a very serious problem during a period of high inflation. And, in modern Russia, it is impossible to treat it using Reaganite methods: slashing spending and reducing regulation to attract foreign investment. Cutting funding for the war and the defense sector is politically inconceivable in Russia at the moment. Even acknowledging that the war and sanctions triggered this cycle of overheating and decline is impossible. That means the Central Bank may well end up being held responsible.

[...]

The Central Bank earlier this month published a report analyzing financial flows. The conclusion was that Russia is on the verge of an economic slowdown. In October, the volume of incoming payments via the Central Bank’s payment system (about half of all payments made in Russia) was down 2.9% compared with the third quarter average. This sort of decline was visible in all industries the Central Bank studied.

[...]

The slowdown is not simply due to declining output in the raw material extraction industries (this has been ongoing for several months amid falling export prices), but also a stuttering manufacturing sector. The only place growth is still noticeable is in sectors linked to the military. Everywhere else in the economy growth is absent, or, at best, anemic.

[...]

All this data has prompted economists to revise downward their projections for Russian GDP growth.

[...]

In a report published Monday, economists from the Institute of Forecasting at Russia’s Academy of Science said that “slowing economic activity and deterioration of financial indicators are becoming increasingly evident in a number of sectors.” And Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) spoke openly in a report Wednesday about possible stagflation. The center (run by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov) flagged the risk of a recession and falling productivity, especially in low-profit sectors and industries with long project implementation timeframes.

[...]

Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina

Executives at big Russian companies who are unhappy with interest rates at 21% have been angrily criticizing the Central Bank and its head, Elvira Nabiullina. Influential lobby group, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), this week even suggested forcing the Central Bank to coordinate its monetary policy with the government.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885443

Beijing risks entanglement in multiple international conflicts, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran.

This involvement directly contradicts China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), an international policing framework through which China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, seeks to position China as a diplomatic fulcrum, promoting peace and stability worldwide. This paradox reveals Beijing’s dilemma: can China maintain its self-proclaimed mediator role while aligning itself with states involved in ongoing conflicts?

As these partnerships become more of a liability than an asset, Beijing appears to be approaching a strategic crossroads. Will China recalibrate its relationships with these conflict-prone nations to preserve its diplomatic credibility, or will its aspirations as a global mediator be jeopardized by its ties to states that fuel regional destabilization?

North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support the Russian war in Ukraine has sparked global concerns. While the US has turned to China to intervene and prevent further troop deployments by North Korea, the actions of Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin could complicate Beijing’s regional and international influence.

[...]

Yet, tighter Russian-North Korea cooperation benefits China. It ensures North Korea has an additional patron, which helps preserve the stability of its regime. As RUSI Fellow Samuel Ramani highlights, “China has also leveraged Russia’s diplomatic clout to get Tumen River access, which could tie the Sea of Japan to the Polar Silk Road. North Korea opposed Tumen access historically, and all China had to do for this was store Russia-bound North Korean arms in Zhejiang port.”

[...]

Nevertheless, complications keep arising. The influx of $1 billion in hard currency from artillery sales and additional hundreds of millions from remittances tied to North Korean troop deployments could reduce Pyongyang’s economic reliance on China – a crucial lever Beijing has traditionally used through calibrated adjustments in sanctions enforcement.

[...]

Additionally, South Korea might use this situation to bolster its alliances with the West by supplying munitions to Ukraine, which could complicate China’s diplomatic outreach to Seoul, particularly within the recently revitalized China-Japan-ROK trilateral dialogue framework. This could be further strained if South Korea begins to perceive China as complicit in North Korea’s arms transfers to Russia. Accusations of tacit Chinese complicity may well escalate if Beijing continues to resist US calls to apply pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang – demands it previously opposed when countering Iranian and Houthi assertiveness in the Red Sea.

[...]

Russia has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate halt to hostilities in Sudan, where a brutal conflict between two rival generals continues unabated.

The draft of the resolution, prepared by Britain and Sierra Leone, called for the warring Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to “engage, in good faith, in dialogue to agree steps to de-escalate the conflict with the aim of urgently agreeing a national ceasefire”.

[...]

Shame on [Russian President Vladimir] for using his mercenaries to spread conflict and violence across the African continent and shame on Putin for pretending to be a partner of the Global South while condemning black Africans to further killing, further rape,” [Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy] said.

[...]

Since April last year, Sudan has been ravaged by fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces – headed by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, who seized power in a 2021 coup – and the Rapid Support Forces, led by Gen Al Burhan's one-time deputy, Gen Mohamed Dagalo.

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced more than 11 million people, including 3.1 million who have fled the country, according to UN data.

The humanitarian toll is severe, with 26 million facing acute food shortages and both sides facing accusations of sexual violence.

Removing civilians from harm’s way in advance of an attack is the right thing for warring parties to do if it’s the only way to protect them. But the laws of war stipulate that this can only be done in narrow circumstances as a temporary measure, and civilians should be given a safer location where their humanitarian needs are met, says Nadia Hardman, a researcher at Refugee and Migrant Rights Division of Human Rights Watch.