this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2023
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A government shutdown would have far-reaching consequences

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[–] Jaysyn@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

Reminder that this is exactly what the #fascist #GOP & their paymaster #Putin want.

[–] theinspectorst@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago

The less widely appreciated concern is that the government will be unable to collect and publish a wide array of the economic data that are the lifeblood of financial markets. Retail sales, housing starts, personal income, gdp and, most crucially, inflation—all these reports will be suspended while the government is shut. The blackout will be more of a problem than during the 2018-19 saga, because on that occasion the Bureau of Labour Statistics (bls), responsible for inflation figures, among others, had already received funding and so could continue to operate. If a shutdown starts next week, the bls would go offline, joining the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, two other stalwarts of official statistics.

The Fed’s policymakers would not be entirely bereft of information about the economy. For starters there are plenty of regular private-sector indicators of which they already make use: multiple reports on the job market, alternative indicators of inflation and surveys of both consumer and business sentiment. Financial information from banks and state-level figures, especially tax receipts, are useful. Plus the central bank has regional offices that will continue to collect data about their local economies. The problem, however, is that none of these fallbacks has the same combination of nationwide scope, methodological rigour and track record as, say, the bls’s consumer price index. “It would be very awkward for the Fed if it made a decision based on its own regional data, and then when the national data comes out, it’s actually quite different,” warns Joseph Wang, a former Fed trader.

This risk could well tip the Fed towards being more doveish in its next interest-rate decision at the start of November. Why raise rates again if there is little visibility about how the economy is performing? If the government reopens and it turns out that inflation was too hot, the Fed could always catch up with a rate increase at its December meeting. By contrast, if the Fed raises rates in November and it then emerges that the economy has in fact slowed sharply, the central bank would have to consider reversing its move—far more awkward to explain than a slightly belated rate hike. The Republican hardliners who are driving the government to a shutdown do not want to be thought of as inflation doves, but that is the strange consequence of their intransigence.

[–] Neblib@mastodo.neoliber.al 1 points 1 year ago

@theinspectorst so so so dumb that not one GOP rep could have voted for Jeffries. We wouldn't be in this mess and while they'd have to run independent next cycle they'd be getting all the pet policies they'd want floor time.