Started here a week ago. There will probably be a spike in users. Hopefully as the weeks go on, more will come. People will try Reddits official app. I think the Fediverse will get more popular, and Reddit will get more unusable.
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I’ve been thinking that too. Most of the users who care enough probably have heard of the whole thing by now and prepared for it in whatever way makes sense for them. I think the very small number that are left using third-party apps care little enough to either reluctantly move to the official Reddit app (that’s what I used to use, I didn’t even know there were other apps), or they might even care little enough that they’ll just stop browsing Reddit altogether because their interest in it doesn’t match the effort they’d have to do to adapt to the new world in any way.
I think there will be some highly-motivated enough individuals who might have been living under a rock, and we’ll have a little bump, but probably not very big.
The Fediverse is still growing and a lot of people aren’t going to want to be there during the growing pains. More likely I suspect there will be a bit of a bump that first week after everything shuts down and then it will even out. We will likely see a slow, but steady organic growth in users over the next few months as users post more content.
For what it's worth I deleted my Reddit accounts and Apollo the day that Christian Selig announced Apollo would shut down on the 30th. No clue how many people will follow suit but it stands to reason that if I did others will as well. I think it'll probably be fewer refugees than some are expecting. I don't think it'll be like the Digg migration
The vast majority will just download the official app or quit using the site. I don't suspect all that many will end up here.
I really enjoy the idea of open source, so earlier today I started thinking isn't that the direction the reddit community should take? Couple of minutes and a search later i found Lemmy and thought it was the coolest concept ever. I may not be most reddit users, but the actions reddit have taken certainly got me here. Lack of apps on ios may be problematic as i don't think most users will think of using web apps (or whatever they're called)
I was an average user, I think. And was on the mobile web version not any app. But came over here when the subs went dark and wouldn't say it took effort. If they block NSFW except on the native Reddit app, maybe yes there will be an exodus. The native app makes my head hurt, it's truly awful and not easy to navigate.
Maybe a bit but it won’t be a tsunami, most Redditors don’t care about the Reddit backend or mods or api changes. Don’t forget we’re just a vocal minority.
I'm guessing a good chunk of people will be split between creating an account on Lemmy/kbin, raddle, squabbles and possibly tildes. One of the alternatives will most likely win out for users switching from Reddit, I hope it is Lemmy but who knows.
Yes