He is worried about party member's backlash. Johnson still has some following in that area. I seem to remember the last poll putting Johnson's fanbase at around 20% in the Tory party. They have their backs to the wall in the next GE. Every vote will count. This is why Labour forced a division, which meant Tory MPs had to have their vote recorded over the anonymity of a vocal vote.
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I think you might be on the money there.
I was thinking it might be some "don't deliver the killing blow, he might be useful one day", but treating it like Mr. Trump with his fans makes more sense.
Politicians are a brutal group. The last thing they consider is another MP's feelings. My particular opinion is that this group of Tories are the most callous I have ever seen. There was a theory flying around a few weeks back that Sunak was worried Johnson may release something about him, but then again the same thing was said about Raab. For me the proof of that argument will be if Sunak selects Johnson for Mid Bedfordshire when Mad Nads leaves. Johnson's brand is toxic atm. There is absolutely nothing to gain from selecting Johnson, so you would have to wonder why he would do this.
Imagine you have two aresholes. Not you personally, we're talking about people who happen to be arseholes. Now imagine one of them is finally, unambiguously, unequivocally revealed to be an arsehole. The other arsehole might not want to throw stones on the basis that deep down inside they know that they, too, are an arsehole who just hasn't been revealed as such yet. It'll come. They know it will, eventually. So they don't want to make too big a deal of castigating the one who has been found out because they know it will ultimately come to bite them on the arse. Hole.
Johnson now has a big megaphone in his DM column that points directly at the remaining Conservative voters. If Sunak displeases Johnson then he’ll stop drivelling on about diet pills and start lobbing hand grenades.
Condemming Johnson would mean Sunak would have to do something.