this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 45 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

By the fucking way, has any other big entity supporter country has a party with explicit goals of sanctioning pisrael (die linke doing struggle sessions as far as i know, bsw is kinda soft for weapon embargo, greens in uk are for embargo but not sanctions i don't think).

Is this some kinda universal point of being shit?

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[–] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 44 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (13 children)

Since everyone's talking about that alleged comedian's racist joke about Puerto Rico being a garbage patch, and I can't think of an interesting discussion topic about Japan:

What strategic value does Puerto Rico currently represent to empire? Previously, a staging ground to place American bases in the Caribbean near Cuba was an absolutely critically important point in the Cold War. As US-Cuba relations cool down, and as the Puerto Rican debt crisis and failure to recover electrical infrastructure from 2017's hurricane Maria post privatization of the electric grid, it seems like our value to empire is reduced. Puerto Rico receives more money in federal funds every year than we produce with our entire manufacturing sector, and the usual culprits for embezzlement, Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) make up a comparatively very small portion of the economy. Previously, I had concluded that the reason the US keeps us around as a colony was just that, the strategic value. But how is it realized?

Follow up question, how could whatever strategic value Puerto Rico has for the US, in the event of a successful PR independence movement, be leveraged against US empire?

Edit: the claim that the federal funds are greater than the manufacturing GDP is entirely wrong actually, I misremembered that from when I had looked this up before and skimmed the sources and came to the wrong conclusion. I just checked and GDP from manufacturing is around 5x federal funding. Still, there's a huge debt problem that's being handled via austerity instead of economic development. I doubt there's too much potential for development in a country with an enormous brain drain problem and inflated US dollar wages, at least under the colonial status quo. So it still begs the question, what's the plan long term?

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[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 44 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)
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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 44 points 4 weeks ago (9 children)

Interesting analysis of Iran's political (and soon to be military) response to the Zionist attack (CW: Looking through his Twitter, apparently he's some cringe patsoc. But the tweets are interesting enough.):
https://xcancel.com/FORTRESSMAXXING/status/1851226851529588739

But then, Khamenei, being the intelligent strategist that he is, made a speech in front of family members of martyrs & using only 60 words on the topic of Israel & the attack, said that Iran must retaliate, but he leaves the nature of the retaliation up to state/military official

Even the editors of Ayatollah Khamenei's official website presented the speech in such a way as to make it seem like he was saying don't retaliate. But if you listen to the speech, it's very clear that he is giving orders for a retaliation.

The foreign-backed Opposition and channels like BBC Persian and Iran International are now shocked as well, saying that this must be a sign that Ayatollah Khamenei is suffering from “ill health” and has “lost his mind.”

Immediately after the speech, New York Times published an article saying Khamenei is “about to die”, giving his enemies (both implicit & explicit) in Iran an excuse to kill him and get away with it. Aka Westophiles implement a similar action as to what likely happened to Raisi.

Opposition channels are even analysing his speech saying “you can hear impending death in Khamenei's voice”. They're essentially calling for his assassination now.

This is also why Israel called for a second series of strikes, in retribution for the attempt on Netanyahu's life. They basically want to kill Khamenei. And these strikes that they want to conduct would be pre-emptive strikes for the strikes that Khamenei has ordered.

Once again, it has become clear as day that the only man truly defending Iran's sovereignty and the achievements of the Islamic Revolution in the post-Khomeini era is Ayatollah Khamenei. His enemies have finally had enough and now it seems like they're going to try to kill him.

By the way, important but unreported news: the “Society of Teachers and Scholars of the Qom Seminary”, an organisation close to the Reformist movement, published a statement the other day saying that the only way to achieve peace in Palestine is to implement a two-state solution.

They also state that Iran must recognize the State of Israel. This is the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that this has happened with an official organization. Previously only a few house arrested politicians (like former reformist president Khatami) said this.

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[–] What_Religion_R_They@hexbear.net 44 points 3 weeks ago (7 children)

Posting here because I don't think my target audience lurks in the general megathread...

Any fans of "cybernetics", or any mechanical or electrical engineers who have suffered through control theory/systems courses? I am fascinated by it, but I have only seriously studied it (in the sense of going into the details and implementation) in the lectures. From what little history the lectures explore, it seems to focus on American contributions, but I know that the field was developed and perfected in the USSR for industrial (and economic?) control. The question is... where do I actually learn about the economical aspects of control systems? Who are the leaders in economic control currently? I guess I am imagining something like Cyberstride/Cybersyn (because this field definitely didn't die in Chile 1973).

My rudimentary searches on Russian Wikipedia lead me to the page on Cybernetics, but it dedicates the first half to misquoting articles by Soviet scientists ridiculing "cybernetics" which makes me skeptical of finding anything useful there (if you read the actual article they quote the author basically shits on the idea circulating in the western press that cybernetic machines are equivalent to the human brain, literally a rehashing of the ChatGPT struggle session but in 1952).

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[–] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 44 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

A historic day in Puerto Rico: this livestream of a campaign closing ceremony for Pro-Independence/3rd Party coalition candidate Juan Dalmau is amassing an incredible view count on X. Its estimated more than 50k people are attending the event held near PR’s Convention district.

i know for most of you nerds dont expect good things to happen this 5th november in the election, but in Puerto Rico who's gobernor elections are this 5th as well the Independence party is doing really well in the polls, only 2% behind the Republican candidate and since she has to deal with the trump rally fallout of calling the island garbage, the independence cadidate has really good chances to win

General Elections in Puerto Rico on November 5, Independence Party Could Win hexbear post

The two parties that have dominated Puerto Rican politics for decades, the New Progressive Party (PNP) and the Popular Democratic Party (PPD) are losing their influence as the independence fighter Juan Dalmau runs for the alliance of the Puerto Rican Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement.

The Gaither poll shows Dalmau with 29% support compared to González’s 31%, who led with 43% in July. Jesús Manuel Ortiz from the Popular Democratic Party is in third place, followed by Javier Jiménez from the Dignity Project.

amerikkkaqin-shi-huangdi-fireball

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[–] NoLeftLeftWhereILive@hexbear.net 44 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

Not entirely sure where to put this, but looks like women, life, freedom is gaining visibility again. Posting this one link to an account that has a relatively high visibility on Mastodon standars and is very deeply lib as an example.

I wish I knew more about this whole intersection, but the timing of this does seem very sus.

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[–] Kestrel@hexbear.net 44 points 4 weeks ago (21 children)

Can someone familiar with Myanmar speak to China's support for the various armed groups? I saw a post on SocialistRA asserting that they are funding the ethnonationalist forces hoping to capitalize on the winners to exploit the natural resources. Western news barely touches Myanmar these days other than to acknowledge the Rohingyan genocide.

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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 43 points 1 month ago (25 children)

Hexbear News Mega America desk, I have caught the electoralist bug and want a sitrep on the upcoming US presidential election - which are the key swing states? what are the battlegrounds to look out for? where are the biggest upsets likely to happen for Harris and Trump?

Give me your informed analysis, give me your spicy takes, give me your conspiracy theories, but please keep them realistic and not the wishful thinking ones. I want to become an “expert” on US electoralism.

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[–] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 43 points 3 weeks ago (7 children)

Hopefully we'll have a regional breakdown on the Moldova vote tomorrow, Transnistria abstention rates will be interesting.

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[–] take_five_seconds@hexbear.net 43 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)
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[–] btbt@hexbear.net 43 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (9 children)

Kamala fucking sucks but at this point I kind of want to see her win for the sole reason that it would make Elon sad

[–] scarcity_of_the_self@hexbear.net 44 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Not gonna lie I hoped folks might shelve this genre of posting on here now that Kamala has openly pivoted to Total Shorkicide. Will nothing restrain you people?

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[–] dead@hexbear.net 43 points 3 weeks ago

November 2 DPRK Press Statements

Have sanction, pressure and threats stopped us?

They have only made us stronger.

The DPRK will never tolerate any attempt to threaten the security environment of the state.

http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/4bfc87ac42a736c8983edd10d5a21554.kcmsf
https://archive.is/ndouy

This year alone, the U.S. and the ROK have further detailed a dangerous nuclear war scenario while breeding various sorts of war plots more than 20 times to use nuclear weapons against the DPRK, including the third meeting of the "Nuclear Consultative Group" and the 5th meeting of the "Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group".

According to it, various strategic assets of the U.S. including the Theodore Roosevelt nuclear carrier task force, Bermont nuclear submarine and B-52H nuclear strategic bomber were deployed on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity more than ten times and various forms of war drills against the DPRK including "Freedom Shield", "Ulji Freedom Shield", "Freedom Edge", "Iron Mace", "Nuclear Consultative Group simulation drill" and "Freedom Flag" were staged without a break this year.
...
The DPRK will perfectly defend its sovereign right, security and development interests under any circumstances and further intensify its practical efforts to ensure the permanent stability of the Korean peninsula and the region in a responsible manner and resolutely counter any threat and challenge in the present and future.

The more provocative act the hostile forces take in defiance of the DPRK's grave warning, the stronger counteraction they will face.

http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/b0103e55a68d487cf0f61995d8b6feb6.kcmsf
https://archive.is/w2ysM

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 43 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (6 children)

Found a probably untrustworthy site attempting to map the Lebanon front with Israel: https://english.iswnews.com/36624/latest-khiam-on-al-khiam-front-map/

Pretty much the only mapping I've ever seen of the Lebanon invasion but that could be because there's practically nothing to map so far because of how much Hezbollah have been fucking the IOF.

The video footage above shows moments of several Israeli airstrikes on al-Khiam town.

In addition to armed confrontation, the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has conducted five rocket and artillery strikes against the movements and gatherings of Israeli troopers in the southeast of al-Khiam.

The Israeli regime’s army bulldozers are also creating defensive embankments and fortifications in the eastern outskirts of al-Khiam front, similar to actions previously taken in the Netzarim Corridor, a 6km stretch of land that divides the northern and southern Gaza Strip.

This measure is aimed at providing security for infantry forces and protecting Merkava tanks from guided anti-tank missiles. It appears that the Tel Aviv regime is preparing for a heavy confrontation in al-Khiam axis.

Al-Khiam town is a significant target for the Israeli regime, and heavy preparations have been made for it.

Another here: https://english.iswnews.com/36626/israeli-occupying-forces-demolish-villages-of-umm-al-tut-marwahin-in-southern-lebanon/

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 43 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (3 children)

Russia has taken this one Ukrainian town and the other 2 towns in a little offensive in the South and Selydovne is confirmed.

EDIT : now there are reports of Kostyantynopil' beeing attacked , which would kinda fuck ukraine if true, as it would create a "Kurakove Cauldron", and behind Kurakove theres basiclly just cottages no big towns anymore.

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