this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2023
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UK Politics

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Snapshot of Eurozone inflation falls to 5.5% in sharp contrast to UK. Economists put reason for divergence down to Brexit and Britain’s energy price guarantee.

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[–] G4Z 1 points 1 year ago (12 children)

So why do Bloomberg put it at 100bn based on that 4% figure?

If you have to compound an effect over 15 years to get 4%, the effect is fuck all.

Yeah, sounds unlikely doesn't it?

Let me ask you, what do you think it's cost the UK per year in billion pounds?

[–] emerty 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (11 children)

Yeah, sounds unlikely doesn't it?

But that's what the forecast says. 4% of productivity lost over the long term of 15 years due to loss of comparative advantage

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis

But the forecast is for the cost, no benefit is included.

The loss of comparative advantage is replaced, I'd argue, with competitive advantage which has a much stronger effect. The UK is no longer bound by the anti science regulations on genetic engineering and the new overly restrictive proposed regulations on AI

GDP per capita is a ratio of GDP / population, so if you do more with fewer people, by using automation, robots and AI, your GDP per capita will grow...

The 4% figure over 15 years is a difference of 0.29% to 0.27% productivity growth. Government policy has at least that 0.02% effect

I predict a Starmer govt will be able to introduce policy that will offset the productivity loss just by investing in renewable energy, let alone any research universities' innovations.

[–] G4Z -1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (10 children)

long-run productivity is GDP mate. Unless you have something which actually says otherwise? Even assuming it is GDP per capita, so what?

But the forecast is for the cost, no benefit is included.

Yes it is included, there isn't any.

The UK is no longer bound by the anti science regulations on genetic engineering and the new overly restrictive proposed regulations on AI

Uh-hu.. back to maybe and could then...

GDP per capita is a ratio of GDP / population, so if you do more with fewer people, by using automation, robots and AI, your GDP per capita will grow…

Mate, I work in IT, have done for 25 years. There is no EU regulation preventing productivity increasing thanks to automation, what a load of nonsense.

Also, we don't have fewer people do we, we have more people.

The 4% figure over 15 years is a difference of 0.29% to 0.27% productivity growth. Government policy has at least that 0.02% effect

Show me a source from somebody credible that says that exactly.

I have a credible source says it's costing 100bn a year.

Here’s another one

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-damage-uk-economy-covid-b2308178.html

Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be 4 per cent smaller than if the country had stayed in the EU, the head of the government’s fiscal watchdog confirmed on Sunday.

Pretty clear that if you ask me, from a national newspaper.

I predict a Starmer govt will be able to introduce policy that will offset the productivity loss just by investing in renewable energy, let alone any research universities’ innovations.

I predict it could all have been done in the EU, and research and development would have been easier and cheaper to collaborate on to boot.

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