this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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My pet hypothesis is that Putin and Prigozhin were engaging in a bit of play acting to stage Wagner troops for an action against Ukraine (Prigozhin benefits) and illustrate the legal and financial measures that Putin will take against powerful dissenters (Putin benefits).
With 25k troops, there's simply no way Wagner could have succeeded in a coup. The regular army is better equipped and could have severed their supply lines with minimal effort, starving the coup with minimal bloodshed. They could have done this in their own interests, and not necessarily in defense of Putin.
Considering how swiftly Wagner's offices were raided and their assets seized, this affair makes more sense as a morality tale to caution antsy oligarchs than as a military action.
Putin declared Prigozhin a traitor on national TV, then fled Moscow, then gave Prigozhin everything he asked for and let him walk away. All within a day. This wasn't some 5D chess nonsense. Putin just surrendered.
I haven't been able to figure out from any of the arti Lea I've seen.. What is it that Putin ended up giving to Prigozhin? What was Prigozhin asking for?