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The original was posted on /r/singularity by /u/IluvBsissa on 2024-01-20 21:13:37+00:00.
Farzad made some observations which Elon Musk tweeted agreement.
The form factor of a humanoid robot will likely remain unchanged for a really long time. A human has a torso, two arms, two legs, feet, hands, fingers, etc. Every single physical job that exists around the world is optimized for this form factor. Construction, gardening, manufacturing, housekeeping, you name it.
That means that unlike a car (as an example), the addressable market for a product like the Tesla Bot will require little or no variations from a manufacturing standpoint. With a car, people need different types of vehicles to get their tasks done. SUVs, Pick Ups, compacts, etc. There’s a variation for every use case.
The manufacturing complexity of a humanoid bot will be much less than a car, and the units that one will be able to crank out over time through the same sized factory will only increase as efficiency gets better over time.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ~60% of all civilian workers in the US have a job that requires standing or walking for a majority of their time. This means that ~60% of civilian workers have a job that is also optimized for a humanoid robot.
There are about 133 million full time employees in the US. Applying the 60%, we can assume there are about 80 million jobs that are optimized for the form factor of a human or humanoid robot. Knowing that the US has about 5% of the total global population, and we conservatively assume that the rest of the world has the same breakdown of manual vs non-manual labor, we get about 1.6 billion jobs that are optimized for a human or humanoid robot. The real number is likely to be significantly higher due to still developing nations.
Humanoid Bot Production Will Be Between Cellphones and Cars
Cell phone manufacturing peaks at around 1.5 billion per year globally, which took roughly 15 years to reach. That means that over the course of 5 years, you’d have made enough cell phones for every single human on earth. Car manufacturing peaks at around 100 million units per year.
These two products fall under what’s called ‘complex manufacturing’. They each have a bunch of parts that are associated with them, and a giant supply chain that feeds all the needed materials for manufacturing. However, the biggest differentiator quite obviously, is the size and style of manufacturing needed for both.
The amount of space and labor needed to manufacture a single car vs a single cell phone is orders of magnitude larger. If we use iPhone manufacturing out of Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant as an example, the plant can produce a peak of 500,000 iPhones PER DAY in a facility that’s about 5.4 million square feet. At peak capacity, this is about 180 million iPhones per year, assuming no shutdowns and issues that can arise. Even if the number was half of this, you’ll quickly see that the difference is staggering.
If we use Tesla’s Fremont plant, which is one of the most efficient car factories in the world, it makes about 650k cars per year in the same exact footprint of 5.4 million square feet.
This means that Apple can make 280 times more iPhones in the same footprint as Tesla can make cars.
Nextbigfuture believes Humanoid Bot will take about 20 Times more space than an iPhone but 15 times less than a car.
Farzad assume a similarly sized factory that can make something on the order of 2,000,000 robots per year (only four times better than a car factory), you would need 500 factories to crank out 1 billion robots per year.
Nextbigfuture believes Humanoid bot will increase production of all factories by about two to ten times. There will increase production of all products and reduce the total number of factories.
Nextbigfuture believes a similarly sized factory that can make something on the order of 10,000,000 robots per year and you would need 100 factories would make 1 billion robots per year.
There are over 400 million tablets and PCs made each year. Those products are about 2 to 10 pounds each.
A 2U server weighs about 25-35 pounds. They cost a few thousands dollars each and there is demand for about 11 million units.
There are 40 million electric bikes made every year. There are 100 million bicycles made every year.
There are about 5-10 million electric standup scooters each year.
Electric bikes can be used for productive applications. Delivery and ride services use e-bikes and e-scooters.
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Worldwide robot vacuums reached 15 million per year but global sales of human operated vacuums is about 150 million per year.
In 2018, global manufacturing employment was around 470 million, representing approximately 12.8% of the world’s total workforce. If there was a ten-15 year transition to humanoid robot for manufacturing then this would be about 50 million units per year.
- If tesla can make 20M cars/year, they can make 100M bots/year. 50 kg product vs 1400 kg product.
- Benefits are a large component of employee cost. A $15/hour wage costs employer at least $20/hour.
- Humans bring personal issues to work. They harass each other. They sleep with another worker’s girlfriend. They get depressed or anxious. Bot reduces or eliminates these problems.
- Bot doesn’t have to directly replace a specific worker. If you have 10 workers on a shift, bot might do a variety of simple tasks that allow you to run the shift with 9 workers
Targets for 50-80 Million by 2030 EVs Per Year Means 1 Billion EVs by 2038-2043
We can reach 1 billion EVs by 2038 to 2043 if EVs reach 80% of all global vehicle production.
The Teslabot and humanoid bots are thirty times lighter.
If Humanoid Bots match human manufacturing workers on a one for one basis then this would be a market for 400-500 million humanoid bot.
Factory owners would accept far higher monthly cost/benefit case were clear. IF the financial benefits far exceeded the total costs then adoption would be rapid and demand would be high.
There are 75 million domestic workers worldwide. There are about 3 million cleaning staff workers in the USA. There are over 6 million home service professionals in the USA.
A maid in Hong Kong costs about HKD5000 per month plus HK$1,236 per month food allowance or about US$850 per month.
A cleaner in USA makes about $40000 per year or $3,300 per month.
Households with domestic help in Asian countries is in the range of 10-20%.
IF the humanoid bot matched the utility of domestic help in Asia at the same cost then would adoption rates globally match or even exceed the levels seen in Asia? The costs for human domestic help in North America are four to eight times higher than in Asia.
IF humanoid bot costs were $3000 per month then the cleaning bot demand might be only 2-6 million toal in the USA. The higher purchase rate would be because of 3-4 shifts per week for the humanoid bot.
