Yeah I mean the trend has been obvious for years now, whether you look at GTA or Counterstrike. The times where you released a game, the game was now finished and you move to the next one are long over.
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The next big thing are full RT graphics without rasterization. The industry will then need the next 10 years or so to fully adapt on that.
After that there won't be any more great improvements. RT already means full realism. You can't make it more realistic.
There are many areas that can be improved upon to make games more realistic, just probably not graphical. NPCs using smarter AI, better physics, a more dynamic environment (better destruction, better NPC interaction with objects), and who knows what else that I can't think of now. There's still a lot of progress to be made, I just don't know if we'll have enough horsepower to run all of that, we're already reaching physical limitations on chips.
Yeah, it's more like 8 years now.
If games will take so long to create, we will probably also see price increases. They will have to fund that development time in some way. I think I do prefer the games like Skyrim where they did take their time to develop the whole world with a broad storyline and many small things that you can do, instead of rushing out a game in a year or two that has no replay value after playing the main story once.
Sounds like Microsoft is about to find out the hard way.