'I admit I was wrong': Allan Lichtman explains why his election prediction failed

Lichtman attributed the inaccurate prediction to factors like disdain for the Biden administration and Harris' late campaign start.

Despite the miss, Lichtman stands by his "13 Keys to the White House" system, emphasizing its long-term accuracy.

He also criticized Nate Silver's polling-based prediction model, suggesting it relied heavily on chance.

Buy my book! It will help you predict a coin flip. Perhaps wrongly but still...!

This made me laugh.

"I don't think I called any (keys) wrong," Lichtman said. "The contest key was rendered problematic by what went on by the Democratic Party but I don't think you can say I called it wrong except for in retrospect. At the time it was the more reasonable call."

I'm stealing "render problematic" and "[My logic was not wrong]" and "I don't think you can say I called it wrong except [in] retrospect".

[–] alcoholicorn@lemmy.ml 28 points 5 days ago (1 children)

They keys did not fail, America failed the keys.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 19 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Look, the keys are still good and it's the locks that are wrong - if your spouse throws you out of the house and changes the locks because America is shacking up with Trump.

[–] miz@hexbear.net 8 points 5 days ago

he'll NEVER make her happy!

[–] barrbaric@hexbear.net 20 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Hey, it worked for Reagan:

My heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true. But the facts and evidence tell me it is not

[–] GrouchyGrouse@hexbear.net 15 points 5 days ago

One of the most brazen things I ever heard. It is mind blowing that he weathered that scandal while his brain was turning into cheese

[–] Thallo@hexbear.net 15 points 5 days ago

I was right until you proved me wrong