this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2024
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The crux of our argument is that I believe the 10 million Dems who voted in 2020 and not in 2024 were enough to have elected Kamala Harris had they shown up, and you see no merit in this idea. That's fine.
Devoid of state level analysis, it is meritless.
The only possibility to rescue a modicum of merit is to look at the swing states. Even in succeeding to rescue some merit, it is not singular in explaining the outcome. It must be contextualized into the choices of voters without seeing it as just "these Democrats stayed home." It will be messy because disengaged voters are vibe based not party based.